CONTINUATION OF DISPATCH SECRET BOOK DISPATCH 5961 20. CD Strength in University No Indicator of CD Party Strength: The CD strength in the universities, however, it does not constitute a reliable index of CD strength in the university presents a corresponding increase in CD party strength. While voting patterns in the university provide valuable insights on populations (particularly youth) attitudes and aspirations, these patterns are not a reliable barometer of extended organized party strength or voter potential. The youth of Latin America do not weigh strength of the CD or the Communist party as strong; among the population at large as it does in the campus. The reason is that the university population of Latin America is less than 2 percent of the total population. The CD groups direct almost invariably graduates from student politics to more direct party involvement when he leaves the university - even if the party has no discernable future. It would appear, however, that the non-university youth (lacking the pseudo-intellectual pretensions and trio self-bestowed elite label of the university-trained) are much less inclined to vote and initiate for Christian Democracy simply because it has emotional or inspirational appeal. 21. CD Failure to Transform Affinity of Lower Classes Into Votes: The inadequately educated and the lower social classes in Latin America are invariably cultivated by the propaganda of the possible to vote for a party that has limited potential to achieve national power, simply because it appeals instead that he resounds chords, to a luxury he believes he cannot afford. Better, he, thereto, to vote for the least objectionable of the traditional parties. Christian Democracy remains basically a middle-class movement. With few exceptions (Chile, the Dominican Republic and to a lesser extent Venezuela) it has scant worker or campesino appeal. By and large, Christian Democracy has failed to reach those on the lower rungs of the social ladder. 22. Individual Party Fortunes Appear Unaffected by CD Progress Elsewhere: Many expected, or at least hoped, that the Frei victory in Chile would give impetus to the development of the CD concept throughout the hemisphere. This has not happened. There is no evidence that individual CD parties were either assisted or hindered in their development by the Chilean success story. And yet the view persists that the Chilean victory was a boon to the movement's potential and progress. During the past year COPE leader Rafael Caldera has broadcast a variation on this theme that several European CD leaders have taken. They argue that CD must emerge victorious in the 1958 election if the CD movement is to maintain its momentum, for an ideologically based movement cannot exist pending off, and gradually die, if it has only one significant victory to cite over a period of several years. We understand the view - based on election results in Argentina, Colombia, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay - that individual party fortunes will be affected by any significant successes by the successes or failures of sister parties elsewhere. With regard to the emerging free elections in nations solid evidence that the national parties will sink or swim on their own devices, based largely on leadership abilities, the development of middle echelon cadres, organizational talents, appeal and "society's disheartened," and the pragmatism of local issues and personalities. International assistance (with rare exception) count for little. The influence of OCIA and the successful CD parties even less. SECRET